Be sure to read the update at the bottom of this post.
The following erroneous post was made by Change Maryland, LLC on Facebook tonight. Change Maryland is a 527 political organization that Larry Hogan headed before he announced his gubernatorial campaign. Since his announcement, they have cross-branded Facebook pages, emails, stage backdrops, and numerous other bits of campaign material.
Here’s what the poll commissioned and reported on by The Washington Post actually said:
Hogan has the support of 17 percent of voters, followed by Harford County Executive David R. Craig with 13 percent, Charles County businessman Charles Lollar with 10 percent and Del. Ronald A. George of Anne Arundel with 4 percent.
Unless there’s some sort of Common Core math I’m not familar with, the 4% margin that Hogan has on Craig (17-13) is not a “2-1 advantage.”
Even if you go back to the poll commissioned by The Baltimore Sun (that had Hogan with 13%, Craig with 7%, George with 6%, and Lollar with 5%), Hogan didn’t quite have a 2-1 advantage. That Sun poll had 68% undecided while the WaPo poll almost had 60% undecided. The poll isn’t anything to crow about right now, but I know that’s what campaigns do. It would be nice if Change Maryland (a.k.a. the Hogan Campaign) could get basic math skills right when they are doing their inconsequential bragging.
As the Hogan campaign pointed out to me, the 17%-13% margin is “Republican and GOP-leaning independent voters.”
It’s pretty obvious to see the whole Post paragraph is more than a little confusing the way it is worded – and the detailed view (which would normally be the crosstabs of a poll) has several different categories of voters on the Republican primary question.
So let’s look at the detailed results. (Hint: at this point it’s still not much to brag about.)
First, the “Leaned Republicans” (the independents leaning Republican.)
38% undecided and Hogan at 17% and only leading by 6%. Undecided at 38%.
Now for the registered voters (including Republicans and Independents leaning Republican.)
Hogan stays at 17% when you add the registered independents leaning Republican together with the registered Republicans. Craig moves up slightly to 13%. Undecideds stay the same at 38%.
Next up: likely voters (again, Republicans and Independents leaning Republican.)
Hogan pads his lead a bit in this category with 22%. However, undecided jumps up to 43%.
Next is Republican voters (registered not likely.)
The undecided is up to 44%.
Hogan does lead 2-1 here over Craig with 18% to 9%. Of course the undecided is higher than the other categories as well.
Registered independent voters are next. Craig leads Hogan among these voters 16%-14%. Could that spell problems in the general election if Hogan were able to win the primary? Undecideds are only 27% among the independents.
Next things get broken down geographically. First up is Baltimore City and the suburbs where Craig and Hogan are tied (among Republicans and independents leaning Republican.)
Next up is a geographical region including Anne Arundel, Howard, Montgomery, and Prince George’s. In these liberal strongholds, Hogan is again up 2-1 among independents leaning Republican and registered Republicans.
For the rest of the state, Charles Lollar is in second place right on Hogan’s heels.
Here are the numbers for men which show a slight lead for Hogan:
Ron George doesn’t do well among women, but Hogan doesn’t do any better than he does in the other groups.
Hogan, Craig and Lollar are bunched together among 18-49 year olds.
Voters over 50 give Hogan 20% and Craig 11%.
Voters without a college degree favor Hogan and Lollar
Hogan and Craig are tied among college graduates:
All in all, this poll shows nothing decisive regardless of how you look at the different demographics. It’s too early and too many people are either undecided or not paying attention at this point.
Quinton is a native South Carolinian who has lived in Baltimore since 2006. He is a recent convert to the Catholic Church and is active in the Knights of Columbus. He has been involved in the pro-life movement nationally and locally since 2010.
Quinton is a veteran who served as an intelligence analyst in the Army National Guard. He is also an Eagle Scout.