Follow-up: Larry Hogan’s Poll Math @hogan4governor


As I wrote about last night, the Hogan campaign (via Change Maryland on Facebook), posted that Hogan had a “decisive” lead among Republican voters in a recent WaPo poll. The post also claimed Hogan has a better chance of beating Brown than Gansler and that he had a better chance of winning than Bob Ehrlich in 2002.

As I wrote when I updated my original post to clarify things last night after complaints from the Hogan campaign, even when you look at just Republican voters (as opposed to Republicans plus Republican leaning independents), the poll is pretty meaningless at this point and still nothing to crow about. I’ve reposted the breakdown of the poll categories below. At this point the undecideds show that the race isn’t on the radar screen of anybody but hardcore activists. Anyone saying otherwise is just spinning on behalf of a campaign.

If all I wanted to do was go after the Hogan campaign, I could’ve also cherry-picked data and pointed out that:

  • Hogan does better among people with less education compared to people with higher education.
  • David Craig does better among independents than Larry Hogan, which is concerning for Hogan in the general election.
  • Charles Lollar is in a virtual dead heat with Hogan in the heavily Republican areas of the state in the “rest of state” category.
  • Hogan and Craig are tied in the Baltimore metro area.

Note, I didn’t do that last night in my original piece or the update. I am just giving an example of how there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. The first poll of the cycle for either the Sun or WaPo really don’t mean that much right now. When we get some more data from later iterations of the same polls, we can talk.

Of course, the Sun poll does show Hogan up 13-7 which is almost a “decisive” 2-1 margin also. However, that poll was conducted by OpinionWorks. In the past, OpinionWorks’ methodology has been criticized by the Hogan supporters at Red Maryland who said OpinionWorks is “a notoriously biased polling firm run by a former liberal operative and is tied in with the CenterMaryland crew of O’Malley Administration refugees.”

Now for the repost of the WaPo poll’s breakdown of the poll with my comments:

First, the “Leaned Republicans” (the independents leaning Republican.)


38% undecided and Hogan at 17% and only leading by 6%. Undecided at 38%.



Now for the registered voters (including Republicans and Independents leaning Republican.)

Hogan stays at 17% when you add the registered independents leaning Republican together with the registered Republicans. Craig moves up slightly to 13%. Undecideds stay the same at 38%.




Next up: likely voters (again, Republicans and Independents leaning Republican.)

Hogan pads his lead a bit in this category with 22%. However, undecided jumps up to 43%.


Next is Republican voters (registered not likely.)

The undecided is up to 44%.

Hogan does lead 2-1 here over Craig with 18% to 9%. Of course the undecided is higher than the other categories as well.




Registered independent voters are next. Craig leads Hogan among these voters 16%-14%. Could that spell problems in the general election if Hogan were able to win the primary? Undecideds are only 27% among the independents.



Next things get broken down geographically. First up is Baltimore City and the suburbs where Craig and Hogan are tied (among Republicans and independents leaning Republican.)



Next up is a geographical region including Anne Arundel, Howard, Montgomery, and Prince George’s. In these liberal strongholds, Hogan is again up 2-1 among independents leaning Republican and registered Republicans.



For the rest of the state, Charles Lollar is in second place right on Hogan’s heels.



Here are the numbers for men which show a slight lead for Hogan:



Ron George doesn’t do well among women, but Hogan doesn’t do any better than he does in the other groups.



Hogan, Craig and Lollar are bunched together among 18-49 year olds.



Voters over 50 give Hogan 20% and Craig 11%.



Voters without a college degree favor Hogan and Lollar



Hogan and Craig are tied among college graduates:



All in all, this poll shows nothing decisive regardless of how you look at the different demographics. It’s too early and too many people are either undecided or not paying attention at this point.


Jeff Quinton

Jeff Quinton

Jeff Quinton is an award-winning blogger who has been aggregating and blogging since 1998. He has worked as a reporter, in government, and as a communications professional in Columbia, SC and Washington, DC.

Quinton is a native South Carolinian who has lived in Baltimore since 2006. He is a recent convert to the Catholic Church and is active in the Knights of Columbus. He has been involved in the pro-life movement nationally and locally since 2010.

Quinton is a veteran who served as an intelligence analyst in the Army National Guard. He is also an Eagle Scout.
Jeff Quinton